Putin to Trump: Let the Bargaining Begin
The Kremlin's Response to America's Gunboat Diplomacy in Venezuela
Jamie Dettmer, opinion editor and foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe, explores Russia's reaction to the United States' actions in Venezuela, highlighting the strategic considerations behind the Kremlin's measured response.
The Calm Reaction
Russia's response to the U.S. involvement in Venezuela has been notably restrained, contrasting with the Kremlin's usual assertive stance. The foreign ministry issued standard statements criticizing 'blatant neocolonial threats and external armed aggression,' demanding the release of Nicolás Maduro, and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's Security Council deputy chairman, labeled the operation 'unlawful.' However, Medvedev's remarks also revealed a subtle admiration for Trump's direct approach to national interests.
Putin's Silence and Kremlin's Endorsement
Interestingly, President Putin has remained silent on the matter, and the Kremlin swiftly endorsed Delcy Rodriguez as Venezuela's interim leader, just two days after Maduro's arrest in New York. This lack of immediate and dramatic reaction from Russia stands in contrast to the expected response given the depth of their alliance with Venezuela, which dates back to 2005 with Hugo Chávez and Maduro.
Bargaining and Strategic Considerations
The current rhetorical restraint may be a calculated move for negotiation. With Russia actively competing for Trump's favor against Ukraine, it's in their interest to avoid escalating tensions with Washington over Venezuela. Additionally, Russia might not want to draw attention to its perceived weakness in Latin America, as it could undermine its credibility in protecting its allies.
Russian Ultranationalists' Reaction
However, the Kremlin's ultranationalists and hard-line militarists have expressed frustration. Aleksandr Dugin, a neo-imperialist philosopher, urged Russia to emulate Trump's approach, suggesting a more aggressive stance. Margarita Simonyan, a Kremlin mouthpiece, also acknowledged the reason for envy. This reaction highlights the internal debate within Russia regarding its strategy.
Strategic Benefits of the U.S. Action
According to Bobo Lo, a former deputy head of the Australia mission in Moscow, the U.S. operation has unintended positive consequences for Russia. It diverts attention from the Ukraine conflict, reduces pressure on Putin, legitimizes the use of force for national interests, and challenges the liberal international order. Fiona Hill, a Russia expert, agrees, suggesting Russia will use Trump's actions to argue for its own 'near abroad' influence.
The New World Order
The New Eurasian Strategies Center, associated with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a longtime Putin opponent, sees the key result of Venezuela as the consolidation of a new U.S. foreign policy logic under Trump, prioritizing force and national interests over international law. Trump's aides have reinforced this message, emphasizing the importance of strength and power in international relations.
The Bargaining Continues
In conclusion, the Kremlin's restrained response to Venezuela is a strategic move, allowing them to negotiate and shape the new world order, as Putin and Trump engage in an indirect bargaining process, starting with Iran.
